From a friend:
What does the nerdburglar think about blu-ray? Is it even worth getting a player, or is hi-def downloadable content right around the corner?
Here’s what the Nerdburglar has said in the past about the technical difficulties facing large-scale downloadable content:
For the foreseeable future, the internet will not be the primary means of delivery of video to your television. Why can I say this? Primarily because Google says that the IP architecture necessary to deliver video does not scale. “The Web infrastructure, and even Google’s [infrastructure] doesn’t scale. It’s not going to offer the quality of service that consumers expect,”
If the web infrastructure doesn’t scale then our digital future will have to be some form of hybrid between Youtube/Hulu and broadcast television. What will that look like?
Note: I’m still perfecting this analogy. The best analogy that I can come up with for how we are going to consume content is to compare it to compare Wal-mart (Google/Amazon/Netflix/Home Server/Blu-Ray) to Seven Eleven (Comcast/broadcast).
Walmart has a limited number of very large stores which contain everything under the sun. These stores have been placed in the most economically efficient locations to provide a vast array of services. If you go to Walmart you know that you will find what you are looking for and it will be cheap. Walmart sells both disposable and non-disposable items. I.e., we can rent it, or we can buy it and watch it over and over without ever paying for it again.
Walmart’s centralized distribution model means that it will be somewhat time-consuming to go there and find what you are looking for however. Your selection at home will be limited to what you have already purchased.
Seven Eleven has a limited selection of items in small stores located within walking distance of your house. The items which Seven Eleven sells are the things which you are most likely to need at any particular time. Seven Eleven sells only disposable items.
Seven Eleven is more expensive, but it is also more convenient. Your selection is limited to what Seven Eleven wants to provide you. More precisely, what Seven Eleven feels are the things that you are most likely to buy.
In our everyday life we make choices between the selection available at Walmart and the convenience of Seven Eleven. In our coming digital life, we will make choices between the affordability/selection available with owned/Netflixed content and the convenience of Comcast.
The Future of Cable Television
Before we proceed further, I want to take one second to talk about On-Demand Cable. My eyes have recently been opened to On-Demand and I now believe that it will have a large impact in how this all plays out. Simply put, On-Demand is a more convenient model than the traditional B-cable channel or the pay movie channels.
The B-cable channel? Yeah, the TV-lands, the TBS’s, Sleuth or any other cable channel which constantly streams nothing but the same re-runs over and over and over. What purpose do these channels serve that cannot be fully satisfied by DVD’s or On-Demand. Nothing other than the ability to run commercials in between content. Consequently, I suspect that we’ll eventually see Cheers and Cosby re-runs On-Demand in replacement of these B-cable channels.
This is consistent with my view that we will start to see less and less cable channels overall. Or at least people subscribing to fewer cable channels. I want a la carte cable, but since I doubt we’ll get it, I might have to be satisfied with better content on fewer cable channels.
Finally, to the extent that Hi-def downloadable content is “right around the corner” it seems to me that On-Demand might be where it will be. On-Demand Video is the cable company’s answer “the last-mile problem.” It doesn’t suffer from the bandwidth restraints that the internet in general suffers from.
The Future of Downloads
So, if our digital future is to be some sort of combination of “cable altered by On-Demand” and the media we own, then the real question we’re trying to answer today is what media do we want to own?
Let’s run some numbers:
Conclusion: If you get AT&T’s U-verse Elite service, which isn’t widely available yet, you might be able to eventually stream a 480i DVD quality movie over the internet. Eventually is the key word. Maybe not ever due to other constraints on the internet.
Conclusion: IPTV (and probably On-Demand) will eventually allow for HD movies. Not streaming internet HD movies, but those served up by your cable provider only.
Blu-ray to the Rescue?
Ultimately the consumer will be best served by the Wal-mart model. Buy your DVDs and Blu-ray disks. Either play them in that form or upload them onto a central household server and stream them throughout the house.
I don’t think the “disk” is the ideal medium for movies. Its great for long term storage of large files to be sure. I find them less convenient than a dedicated home server which can be streamed to any television in the house however.
I firmly believe in the future of the AppleTV or some other streaming device which sits on top of your television. I believe that eventually most people will put their DVD’s a hard drive allowing them to play videos on any tv in the house through an Itunes like interface.
So, if you’re going to eventually have a home server/Apple TV, you want to plan your media purchases to prepare for that eventuality.
The Home Network: The next iteration of Wi-fi–802.11n–is supposed to be finalized this year or next. The N-standard will provide theoretical transfer speeds that are ten times that of the G-standard over twice the distance. This will easily be enough to concurrently stream HD Movies to multiple TV sets over your network. So no problem here.
Storage: (This discussion assumes that you can hack the Blue-ray disk and put it on a hard-drive. Hacking the regular DVD is easily done today.) Assuming that this is all going to happen a year or three down the road, I’ll make the reasonable assumption that your home server is comprised of a minimum of two two-terabyte hard-drives. One primary, one backup.
One terabyte currently costs about $100. More will cost less in the future.
With that two terabytes, we can store approximately: 100 HD-Movies, 330 480i-Movies, 1,300 480i half-hour sitcoms or more likely, some combination of the three.
What’s the Nerdburglar planning on doing?
The Nerdburglar has a large collection of movies. I suspect that out of that collection there is only a small portion of which I will definitely upgrade to HD. The Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, etc. For the rest of them, DVD quality is mostly satisfactory to me.
As such, I’m comfortable waiting around for Blu-ray prices to continue to fall all the while continuing to buy $5 DVDs at Amazon.
In my minds eye, the only downside of that approach is the conundrum of whether to buy new movies on DVD if I know that I will eventually want them High-Def. A small price to pay I think.
An semi-interesting article which examines some of the video vs. tv issues.
http://www.physorg.com/news148710637.html
In your “Let’s run some numbers” section, you appear to be omitting a key ingredient to the entire equation: Compression. No one will be storing DVD video (Mpeg2) or streaming it over the internet or in their homes if they know what they’re doing. It will likely be some form of mpeg4/10/h.264 which requires a fraction of the bitrate for similar image quality. I can speak from personal experience that you can stream high quality standard resolution video even over the antiquated 802.11b standard and that compressed HD Video will stream fine over 802.11G.
All this being said, it’s still a personal call. I like to own a disc. I like to have complete control over my content. Thats difficult without owning the disc.
I recently bought a Blu-Ray of the movie Wanted. (Great movie btw) and it came with a “digital” copy in highly compressed HD quality video. It’s less than 2 GB in size.
Ignoring the entrenchment of DVD (and because they initiated the move to HD-DVD/Blu-Ray before compression was where it is today), they could have released new “DVD” players that supported modern compression technology and made the jump to HD without a new physical media at all. DL-DVD media is large enough for HD video using modern compression.
First, like you I want to own my discs so that I have complete control. I also prefer having a physical backup, regardless of how I end up using the content. I still mostly use discs to play music and movies. I guess I’m old fashioned but I like a big stereo and a big tv and good quality.
The lack of complete control is one of the reasons why I am waiting on Blu-ray. I know that the ability to break encryption will eventually be widespread in the same way that Handbrake is. But until it is, I’m just hesitant to dive in.
Second, I didn’t mean to imply that today’s 802.11 standards were insufficient to stream video. I brought up the N standard because I was trying to predict what our future living rooms will look like. I guess I didn’t say it, but I was operating under the assumption that we will probably want the ability to run something like: Separate HD streams to three televisions, simultaneous with whatever other internet surfing or phone calls are using the network.
My basic point was simply this: Within a year or so, and for about a hundred bucks, the “home network” will present no bottleneck to what I think we will want to be using it for. You’re probably right that a decent G network today can already do most of that.
Finally, you are right that my numbers ignored better compression. I didn’t have those numbers handy, so thanks. In this regards however, I’m not sure I’ll compress if its not necessary. Storage is cheap and getting cheaper. To the extent that I have storage space available, there’s no reason not to put the full version of an HD movie on your server as opposed to the 2GB version Big Media wants you to use.
“I’m not sure I’ll compress if its not necessary……to the extent that I have storage space available”
Given the capacity of blu-ray and the requirements of HD video, even as cheap as storage is, I think compression will be an absolute requirement. Even with single layer blu-ray, it doesn’t take many 25GB discs to fill a terabyte when you consider things like entire seasons of TV in HD residing on a server. I currently store most all my video media in some form of mpg4, and most is in SD. Based on the amount of content I have and the amount of space I would want for that content, if I make a conversion to uncompressed HD, I would need literally dozens of terabytes of storage and my online media collection is only just getting started. I have several different drives dedicated to my media server. As an example, I have a 320GB drive that I’ve been using to store my “TV”. It currently holds 4 seasons of Farscape, 3 seasons of Star Trek, 3 seasons of Gummi Bears (don’t start) 5 seasons of La Femme Nikita and 1 season of Millennium. I’m currently using about 60% of the 320GB. This equates to about 322 42 minute episodes or 13,520 minutes/225 hours of content. Considering a single layer 25GB blu-ray can hold about 4 hours of HD content, this would represent about 56 Blu-Ray discs or about 1.4 terabytes of storage space consumed.
You make good points and you’re obviously further along in setting up the ultimate home system than I am so for now I’ll defer to your judgment.
Do you have this all hooked up to your television? What do you use?
I’m currently having the best luck using my xbox360 as the front end for the stream. The HDMI port means that I can seamless upgrade to HD when I make the decision. I use a free software solution on my PC called TVersity. It acts as the backend software and supports all the standards based media server communication protocols. It’s nice because I can just tell it what folders I want it to “share” and then when I connect to it from my TV, everything is just there. I’ve also done it on my PS3 (bad gaming habits are hard to break) but for some reason the PS3 gets finicky about recognizing certain codecs. I’m looking into getting a TV tuner card in my PC again (i used to have one pulling magnum PI epidodes but that card died and I’ve since bought all the magnums on DVD) and setting up some wireless media extenders so my computer in my office can act as a remote DVR (again through the 360), streaming everything to the TV. I’ve tinkered with it in the past but never had a setup that worked well enough to consider it as anything more than a toy. Hopefully, now that I’m running Vista and a lot of the media functionality is native, this will be smoother. I’m guessing it will be “ready for primetime” when Windows 7 hits.