Thoughts on the results? The future?
Who is Barack Obama? With their candidate elected, will MSM actually examine who he is and what he believes?
What happens to Sarah Palin? What is her role in the upcoming battle for the remnants of the GOP?
As of 7:30 this morning, the popular vote tally was Obama: 62,450,844, McCain: 55,393,214. There are probably still 3-4 million votes to be counted in California, Oregon and Washington, and a smattering elsewhere.
By comparison, the 2004 popular vote was Bush: 62,040,610, Kerry 59,028,444.
For all the hype and proclamations of “the most important election since the last most important election of your lifetime,” it was basically the same turnout as last time.
What happens to McCain-Feingold? Surely, McCain is the last Presidential candidate who will accept federal financing?
I guess we can already count the death of campaign finance reform as one of Barack Obama’s accomplishments.
I was expecting a little higher voter turnout myself, though not much. It looks like the difference was some people who voted last time for Bush, voted for Obama, rather than some massive surge in the black/youth vote that everyone was predicting. It will be interesting to read the post mortem on the turnout demographics when they put them out.
Yeah, I will be interested to see the final vote counts in total and by demographic. BK, would you consider this a “landslide” victory for Obama? I am not exactly sure what constitutes a landslide. Obama won big in electoral votes, but Big Mac still received 47% of the popular votes.
Virginia 2008: 3,427,123
Virginia 2004: 3,171,701
Obama: 1,791,510
Bush: 1,716,959
McCain: 1,635,613
Kerry: 1,454,742
Ohio 2008: 5,013,742 (97% in)
Ohio 2004: 5,598,679
Bush: 2,858,727
Kerry: 2,739,952
Obama: 2,618,612
McCain: 2,395,130
North Carolina 2008: 4,191,819
North Carolina 2004: 3,487,015
Obama: 2,101,991
McCain: 2,089,828
Bush: 1,961,166
Kerry: 1,525,849
Pennsylvania 2008: 5,768,866 (99% in)
Pennsylvania 2004: 5,731,942
Obama: 3,184,778
Kerry: 2,938,095
Bush: 2,793,847
McCain: 2,584,088
Colorado 2008: 2,060,869 (88% in)
Colorado: 2004: 2,102,987
Obama: 1,100,185
Bush: 1,101,255
McCain: 960,684
Kerry: 1,001,732
1984 was a landslide: Reagan carried 49 of the 50 states. Mondale won his home state of Minnesota by 3,800 votes and D.C. Reagan received 58.8% of the national popular vote to Mondale’s 40.6%.
I’m not sure what I consider this yet. Still working the numbers.
VOTE BY AGE
18-29 (17%)
Bush: 45%
Kerry: 54%
18-29 (18%)
McCain: 32%
Obama: 66%
30-44 (29%)
Bush: 53%
Kerry: 46%
30-44 (29%)
McCain: 46%
Obama: 52%
45-59 (30%)
Bush: 51%
Kerry: 48%
45-64 (37%)
McCain: 49%
Obama: 49%
60 and Older (24%)
Bush: 54%
Kerry: 46%
65 and Older (16%)
McCain: 53%
Obama: 45%
VOTING BY RACE
White (77%)
Bush: 58%
Kerry: 41%
White (74%)
McCain: 55%
Obama: 43%
African-American (11%)
Bush: 11%
Kerry: 88%
African-American (13%)
McCain: 4%
Obama: 95%
Latino (8%)
Bush: 44%
Kerry: 53%
Latino (8%)
McCain: 32%
Obama: 66%
Asian (2%)
Bush: 44%
Kerry: 56%
Asian (2%)
McCain: 35%
Obama: 61%
Other (2%)
Bush: 40%
Kerry: 54%
Other (3%)
McCain: 31%
Obama: 65%
VOTE BY AGE AND RACE
White 18-29 (12%)
Obama: 54%
McCain: 44%
White 30-44 (20%)
Obama: 41%
McCain: 57%
White 45-64 (30%)
Obama: 42%
McCain: 56%
White 65 and Older (13%)
Obama: 40%
McCain: 58%
Black 18-29 (3%)
Obama: 95%
McCain: 4%
Black 30-44 (4%)
Obama: 96%
McCain: 4%
Black 45-64 (4%)
Obama: 96%
McCain: 3%
Black 65 and Older (1%)
Obama: 94%
McCain: 6%
Latino 18-29 (3%)
Obama: 76%
McCain: 19%
Latino 30-44 (3%)
Obama: 63%
McCain: 36%
Latino 45-64 (2%)
Obama: 58%
McCain: 41%
Latino 65 and Older (1%)
Obama: 68%
McCain: 30%
All Others (5%)
Obama: 63%
McCain: 33%
Full 2008 Exit Polls and 2004 Exit Polls
The co-alition of blacks and the young which elected Obama schismed over gay marriage in California.
Blacks: 70% against; 30% for.
18-29: 39% against; 61% for.
Can I say something without sounding racist?
First, impression. Did he win because of the race issue? I would like to know how many african-americans or other non-white -voted on race or b/c of his issues?
Looking at the numbers/age sure gives me that impression.
Using Bush’s numbers as a baseline. About 10% of Asians, Latinos and Other crossed parties towards Obama. They comprise about 13% of the voting population. Last time they were 12%, so that swung the election 2% (+1 for Obama, minus 1 for McCain), of which about 0.6% came from higher turnout and 1.4% from switching from Bush to Obama.
Using Bush’s numbers as a baseline. 7% of Blacks crossed parties towards Obama. Blacks also voted in greater number than they historically do. I’m not exactly sure how to do the math on this one. But as a percentage of the the popular vote Blacks accounted for approximately the following: Obama (12.35%), Kerry (9.7%), Bush (1.21%), McCain (0.7%).
If I’m looking at the math right, Obama got about a 2% bump from more blacks voting and about a 0.5% bump from blacks defecting from Bush to Obama.
Using the current tabulations, Obama won 53-47%. Bush, won 50.7-48.3%. Obama gained five, McCain lost three.
From the minority vote totals, we’ve identified 1.1% of McCain’s lost votes and 3.4% of Obama’s gain. That would have given Obama 51.7% to McCain’s 49.6%. The rest needed to come from changes in the white vote. What changes? Probably Obama gained a full 1% from the white 18-40 age group. McCain probably lost an additional 2% as a result of whites who voted for Bush not voting at all.
Essentially, this is appearing to be the exact reverse of 2004: a get out the Democratic base election.
1. Not a landslide.
2. Obama won because of the financial crisis.