Newsburglar

• Nov 5, 2008 Mike Beacom

  I was expecting a little higher voter turnout myself, though not much. It looks like the difference was some people who voted last time for Bush, voted for Obama, rather than some massive surge in the black/youth vote that everyone was predicting. It will be interesting to read the post mortem on the turnout demographics when they put them out.

• Nov 5, 2008 John Kennedy

  Yeah, I will be interested to see the final vote counts in total and by demographic. BK, would you consider this a “landslide” victory for Obama? I am not exactly sure what constitutes a landslide. Obama won big in electoral votes, but Big Mac still received 47% of the popular votes.

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  Virginia 2008: 3,427,123
  Virginia 2004: 3,171,701

  Obama: 1,791,510
  Bush: 1,716,959
  McCain: 1,635,613
  Kerry: 1,454,742

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  Ohio 2008: 5,013,742 (97% in)
  Ohio 2004: 5,598,679

  Bush: 2,858,727
  Kerry: 2,739,952
  Obama: 2,618,612
  McCain: 2,395,130

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  North Carolina 2008: 4,191,819
  North Carolina 2004: 3,487,015

  Obama: 2,101,991
  McCain: 2,089,828
  Bush: 1,961,166
  Kerry: 1,525,849

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  Pennsylvania 2008: 5,768,866 (99% in)
  Pennsylvania 2004: 5,731,942

  Obama: 3,184,778
  Kerry: 2,938,095
  Bush: 2,793,847
  McCain: 2,584,088

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  Colorado 2008: 2,060,869 (88% in)
  Colorado: 2004: 2,102,987

  Obama: 1,100,185
  Bush: 1,101,255
  McCain: 960,684
  Kerry: 1,001,732

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  1984 was a landslide: Reagan carried 49 of the 50 states. Mondale won his home state of Minnesota by 3,800 votes and D.C. Reagan received 58.8% of the national popular vote to Mondale’s 40.6%.

  I’m not sure what I consider this yet. Still working the numbers.

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  VOTE BY AGE

  18-29 (17%)
  Bush: 45%
  Kerry: 54%

  18-29 (18%)
  McCain: 32%
  Obama: 66%

  30-44 (29%)
  Bush: 53%
  Kerry: 46%

  30-44 (29%)
  McCain: 46%
  Obama: 52%

  45-59 (30%)
  Bush: 51%
  Kerry: 48%

  45-64 (37%)
  McCain: 49%
  Obama: 49%

  60 and Older (24%)
  Bush: 54%
  Kerry: 46%

  65 and Older (16%)
  McCain: 53%
  Obama: 45%

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  VOTING BY RACE

  White (77%)
  Bush: 58%
  Kerry: 41%

  White (74%)
  McCain: 55%
  Obama: 43%

  African-American (11%)
  Bush: 11%
  Kerry: 88%

  African-American (13%)
  McCain: 4%
  Obama: 95%

  Latino (8%)
  Bush: 44%
  Kerry: 53%

  Latino (8%)
  McCain: 32%
  Obama: 66%

  Asian (2%)
  Bush: 44%
  Kerry: 56%

  Asian (2%)
  McCain: 35%
  Obama: 61%

  Other (2%)
  Bush: 40%
  Kerry: 54%

  Other (3%)
  McCain: 31%
  Obama: 65%

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  VOTE BY AGE AND RACE

  White 18-29 (12%)
  Obama: 54%
  McCain: 44%

  White 30-44 (20%)
  Obama: 41%
  McCain: 57%

  White 45-64 (30%)
  Obama: 42%
  McCain: 56%

  White 65 and Older (13%)
  Obama: 40%
  McCain: 58%

  Black 18-29 (3%)
  Obama: 95%
  McCain: 4%

  Black 30-44 (4%)
  Obama: 96%
  McCain: 4%

  Black 45-64 (4%)
  Obama: 96%
  McCain: 3%

  Black 65 and Older (1%)
  Obama: 94%
  McCain: 6%

  Latino 18-29 (3%)
  Obama: 76%
  McCain: 19%

  Latino 30-44 (3%)
  Obama: 63%
  McCain: 36%

  Latino 45-64 (2%)
  Obama: 58%
  McCain: 41%

  Latino 65 and Older (1%)
  Obama: 68%
  McCain: 30%

  All Others (5%)
  Obama: 63%
  McCain: 33%

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  Full 2008 Exit Polls and 2004 Exit Polls

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  The co-alition of blacks and the young which elected Obama schismed over gay marriage in California.

  Blacks: 70% against; 30% for.
  18-29: 39% against; 61% for.

• Nov 5, 2008 Niki

  Can I say something without sounding racist?

  First, impression. Did he win because of the race issue? I would like to know how many african-americans or other non-white -voted on race or b/c of his issues?

  Looking at the numbers/age sure gives me that impression.

• Nov 5, 2008 Brian Karpuk

  Using Bush’s numbers as a baseline. About 10% of Asians, Latinos and Other crossed parties towards Obama. They comprise about 13% of the voting population. Last time they were 12%, so that swung the election 2% (+1 for Obama, minus 1 for McCain), of which about 0.6% came from higher turnout and 1.4% from switching from Bush to Obama.

  Using Bush’s numbers as a baseline. 7% of Blacks crossed parties towards Obama. Blacks also voted in greater number than they historically do. I’m not exactly sure how to do the math on this one. But as a percentage of the the popular vote Blacks accounted for approximately the following: Obama (12.35%), Kerry (9.7%), Bush (1.21%), McCain (0.7%).

  If I’m looking at the math right, Obama got about a 2% bump from more blacks voting and about a 0.5% bump from blacks defecting from Bush to Obama.

  Using the current tabulations, Obama won 53-47%. Bush, won 50.7-48.3%. Obama gained five, McCain lost three.

  From the minority vote totals, we’ve identified 1.1% of McCain’s lost votes and 3.4% of Obama’s gain. That would have given Obama 51.7% to McCain’s 49.6%. The rest needed to come from changes in the white vote. What changes? Probably Obama gained a full 1% from the white 18-40 age group. McCain probably lost an additional 2% as a result of whites who voted for Bush not voting at all.

  Essentially, this is appearing to be the exact reverse of 2004: a get out the Democratic base election.

• Nov 5, 2008 Mike Beacom

  1. Not a landslide.
  2. Obama won because of the financial crisis.

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