Too much red meat can be deadly, study says:
Is that extra bite of red meat really going to kill you? If it’s your fourth ounce in a day, it might.
People who eat the most red meat daily (about four ounces) are about a third more likely to die than those who eat the least (about 19 grams)…
Here’s what you really need to know about the study.
Study Background
The recent study is believed to be the largest study to date looking at the links between red and processed meat and their effect on the risk of death from cancer, heart disease, and other causes, Sinha tells WebMD.
Her team evaluated more than 500,000 men and women who participated in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. Participants were between the ages of 50 and 71 when the study began in 1995, and all provided detailed information about their food intake.
The researchers followed them for 10 years, using the Social Security Administration’s databases to track causes of death. During the follow-up period, 47,976 men and 23,276 women died. (More…)
In other words, the study authors asked 500,000 people to fill out a quesionairre 13 years ago and then studied Social Security death records to see how many of them died.
That’s it. That’s the study.
How Much Meat Were They Eating
The study breaks consumption of red/white/processed meats into five levels. Unfortunately for our metric deficient minds, they do so in grams per 1000 calories. For (y)our convenience, here is the info in ounces per standard 2000 calorie diet.
| Median meat intake: | Q1 (low) | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 (high) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | 0.7 oz | 1.5 oz | 2.2 oz | 3.0 oz | 4.4 oz |
| White | 0.7 oz | 1.3 oz | 1.6 oz | 2.7 oz | 4.6 oz |
| Processed | 0.1 oz | 0.3 oz | 0.5 oz | 0.9 oz | 1.6 oz |
Note: Red Meat included beef, pork, bacon, ham, hamburger, hot dogs, liver, pork sausage, steak, and meats in foods such as pizza, stews, and lasagna.
White meat included turkey, fish, chicken, chicken mixtures, and other meats.
Processed meat was either white or red meat that was cured, dried, or smoked, Sinha says, such as bacon, chicken sausage, lunch meats, and cold cuts.
Study Conclusion
The study’s conclusion: “Red and processed meat intakes were associated with modest increases in total mortality, cancer mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality.”
The table below provides the study’s “Hazard Ratio.” Those in Q1 ate the least red meat. Those in Q5 the most. According to the study’s results, Men in Q5 died at a rate of 1.31 for every death in Q1.
| Sex and Meat | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men Red Meat | 1 | 1.06 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.31 |
| Men White Meat | 1 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.92 |
| Women Red Meat | 1 | 1.08 | 1.17 | 1.28 | 1.36 |
| Women White Meat | 1 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.92 |
Other Possible Causes
There are lots of reasons why people die. The focus of this study was on red meat consumption. But let’s also look at some of the other characteristics of the people who participated in this study. Below is the study’s data regarding some characteristics of men who had the lowest and highest red meat intake.
| Other Factor | Lowest Red Meat | Highest Red Meat |
|---|---|---|
| BMI | 25.9 | 28.3 |
| Never a Smoker | 34.4% | 25.4% |
| Current smoker/quit < 1 year | 4.9% | 14.8% |
| Vigorous Physical activity > 4 times/wk | 30.7% | 16.3% |
| Calories/day | 1899 | 2116 |
In words, among the men who consumed the most red meat, they:
- Had a BMI that was 2.4 higher. For a 5’11” person, that means they were about 16 pounds heavier;
- Were three times more likely to be a current smoker or have recently quit;
- Were half as likely to engage in “vigorous physical activity” five times a week;
- Ate 200 more calories a day;
And yet the problem is red meat?
The study’s Adjusted Hazard Ratio was the author’s attempt to compensate for the above factors, among others. Let’s compare the Men’s Adjusted Hazard Ratio to the Men’s Basic Hazard Ratio.
| Sex and Meat | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Red Meat | 1 | 1.06 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.31 |
| Basic Red Meat | 1 | 1.07 | 1.17 | 1.27 | 1.48 |
So, using the basic model, Men who ate the most red meat actually died at a rate of 1.48 to 1 compared to men who ate the least red meat. Why? Because they were more unhealthy overall.
Did the fact that they eat more red meat probably contribute to that? Sure.
Was it as big a factor as the study says? I doubt it.
Per Capita Beef Consumption
Per capita beef consumption was higher in 1910 than it is today.
There are lots of things that are “wrong” with the typical American diet. I don’t think however that the media has done a good job of letting us know that we did listen to what the experts have been saying about “meat” over the last 30 years.
Compare the amounts and ratios between 1970 and 2006 and tell me that people haven’t been listening.
| Year | Beef | Pork | Fish | Eggs | Chicken | Turkey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1910 | 70.4 | 62.3 | – | 306 | 15.5 | – |
| 1920 | 59.1 | 63.5 | – | 299 | 13.7 | – |
| 1930 | 48.9 | 67.0 | 10.3 | 331 | 15.7 | 1.5 |
| 1940 | 54.9 | 73.5 | 10.6 | 319 | 14.1 | 2.9 |
| 1950 | 63.4 | 69.2 | 11.6 | 389 | 20.6 | 4.1 |
| 1960 | 85.1 | 77.6 | 10.3 | 335 | 27.8 | 6.2 |
| 1970 | 84.4 | 61.9 | 11.8 | 309 | 40.1 | 8.1 |
| 1980 | 72.1 | 52.1 | 12.4 | 271 | 32.7 | 8.1 |
| 1990 | 63.9 | 46.4 | 14.9 | 234 | 42.4 | 13.8 |
| 2000 | 64.5 | 47.8 | 15.2 | 250 | 53.2 | 13.7 |
| 2006 | 62.7 | 46.0 | 16.5 | 251 | 61.3 | 13.3 |
Sources: here and here and here and here.
Related Reading: |
For what its Worth
Here are the full Hazard Rates for the Basic Model.
And, One More Thing…
The cohort which participated in this study was “predominantly non-Hispanic white, more educated, consumed less fat and red meat and more fiber and fruits and vegetables, and had fewer current smokers than similarly aged adults in the US population.” In other words, people in this study were healthier than Americans in general.
13 years of study is not that long, though 500,000 participants is a good amount of pool.
I don’t know if I can entirely disagree with you that the MSM has overreacted on this story. However, I do think that our diet has gone down hill in recent years. Meat (both red and white) used to be considered as something that you have every once in a while since it was expensive. Not anymore, since the mass production of food came along. I believe that we still don’t understand entirely the effects of growth hormones and other stuff that are being injected into our food. Measuring a pool of people for 13 years might not be suffice. I want to see how eating hormone injected food alter the life span/health for the following generations. Eating less meat, I think, will be healthier in the long run. It takes our body a lot of energy and time to break down protein vs. fiber. I could be wrong, but I thought I read somewhere that excessive red meat eaters also had colon cancer. Don’t get me wrong, I could never give up red meat, but I say moderation is the way to go.
It would be interesting to see how much steroids are put into cows-into their diet and I think that is why some of these kids are so huge today!
Pang,
Just out of curiosity, what time frame are we talking about here?
“Meat (both red and white) used to be considered as something that you have every once in a while since it was expensive.”
Growing up, we didn’t have a lot of money. One income, 8 kids, and all of them in private school. We had meat with every meal. Why? Because my parents grew up eating meat at every meal. Why? Because their parents taught them the same thing. We’re going back about 80 years now. None of these generations were well off and meat was a staple, mostly red. Bacon, pork cutlets, liver, and hamburger is cheap and fuels hard work really well. Admittedly, this is in the midwest, where meat is likely the cheapest since it’s usually local, but still I’m curious what you mean when you say our diet has gotten worse in “recent years” due to meat no longer being somewhat of a luxury. I think Brian is more to the point of our diets being sacrificed to the profit gods of “Big Food” when they pump our food (and the animals) full of chemicals to increase production and longevity on the shelf. Being fair though, the upside to this is most likely cheaper food for more people, fwiw.
@Niki,
Also, to your point about kids being huge, I think you might find some interesting information if you look at the relationship to increased dual income families. When both parents work full time, it’s incredibly difficult for a child to get good whole-food balanced nutrition as more and more daycare facilities lean on bulkpack processed foods and parents who lack sufficient meal prep time are forced to boxed/frozen/preprepared foods, that we all know are chock full of the nasty stuff that contribute to obesity. Combine that with an increase in urban living and you get kids participating in fewer hours of exercise per week which only compounds the problem.
Same with us growing up- we had meat all the time. Seemed like Chicken was the odd meal out. We grew up with meat from the butcher..always had a relative that we would buy the cow from them. Our freezer always had meat in it.
@Mike-
I really didn’t mean kids overweight- though I totally agree with you that kids these days are in side way to much playing their video games etc. I remember being outside all the time. We would hike, bike etc. fights with the neighbors etc. I was refering more to the height etc. Just seems like the kids in high school are so much bigger then I remember the boys in my grades were. But could just be the old memory failing me again =).
And with my husband -we are plain jane-just traditional pep for us. Though I do luv their Mexican fiesta one!
@Niki,
Ok, yeah, totally my misunderstanding. Not sure about the height, maybe you’re on to something. I haven’t personally noticed kids being taller than they used to be. Although I know that I’ve read people are getting taller in general, particularly in the western world. Then again, I think this has been happening for millennia.
I think less and less are eating a heathly breakfast.. Look in the cereal row and those breakfast bars on the go. I understand being rushed in the morning and now moms work and early..so a lot of kids are alone in the morning. Even though we always had a breakfast waiting for us. My breakfast is either coffee or a diet mt dew…so I really can’t talk.
Kinda suprising that the meat didn’t go up with the Atkins diet. Isn’t that an all you can eat meat one?
This is a good article on height through American history. Basically, through WWI we were taller than Europeans. Now, not so much.
@Niki. And actually @Pang. I think what we are seeing is an incredible (in a bad way) segmentation of American society. Some of us understand and care that diet plays a massive role in our overall well being and are learning to adjust our diet in the face of the complete and utter abundance of modern society. Others are just content to get fat.
With regard to high school, some kids want to be athletes and they work harder at it then kids in the past ever had to. These kids probably are a lot bigger than previous generations.
Some kids don’t care. These kids will face great difficulty staying healthy throughout life.
@Niki. Don’t slag on the coffee breakfast. There are no calories in coffee as long as you’re not putting sugar in it. There are conflicting studies as to whether coffee is good or bad overall, but its unlikely to kill you.
It also kills the appetite, which means that you’re not eating. I think that the fact that the Q5 meat eaters were eating an extra 200 calories a day and were 16 pounds heavier is probably more important to their overall health than the fact they ate more meat.
Eat food. Mostly Plants. Not too much.
Wow – I feel like I’ve been missing out on the discussion!
Ok, Mike – I don’t really have time-line exactly; I’m speaking from experience and what I have read/heard. When I was growing up, though in a different country, I remember not eating much beef. Pork and chicken were a little more common. Chicken were plentiful because many people in our little town, including my own family, raised them. Pork was cheaper than beef, so we had more of it. I remember having some sort of meat at every meal as well, though I don’t remember it being in such quantity that I can afford now or being offered in restaurants. I remember going to Fogo de Chao and seeing waiters came by our table to take half-eaten side dishes and threw them away. I know that they are not meat, but I feel that food has gotten so cheap. We’re so used to supersizing everything, and everything becomes cheaper in order for us to supersize. May be it’s not the frequency in which we have meat, but the quantity?
@Niki – The FDA would say that growth hormones are perfectly safe to inject in our food supply, though there are many people out there who don’t buy the argument (hence organic food). Girls are reaching puberty much earlier, for example, which has been linked to food. However, I can also argue that our society is much more nourished now that our bodies may have evolved. Healthy societies have “bigger” citizens in general. Asians (from Asia) are still pretty short, while Asians (from western countries) are much taller.
@Brian – I don’t think it’s a fair comparison when you just look at extremes. I don’t know what has caused the jump in 1970, but a regression would indicate that beef consumption is increasing over the years, even with the outlier of 1970 removed. I do agree with you that the MSM hasn’t done a good job at reporting stories in a more effective manner. They’re not being journalists, but merely reporting. So, good job with your analysis!
My point is that I don’t think eating red meat is bad for you, at least in moderation. I don’t think anyone eat beef for all their meals everyday. As our society becomes more stressed, I think we eat less healthy food. Convenience rules. And I don’t think chemical-laced food is good for you either. We have cut off frozen food altogether. All the artificial flavoring, etc., can’t be good. Now, just to be clear, I’m not “free” of anything. I love food, and there are some bad food out there that you simply can’t avoid (no substitutes, etc.) If there are healthier substitutes, then I will lean toward the options.
I understand some skepticism of the census numbers. My simplistic take on how they compute it is that they simply take the total amount of beef produced and divide it by the number of people in the country (accounting for exports and all that). But if that’s what they’ve been doing for years then the numbers are pretty clear: beef consumption peaked in 1960’s and 1970’s and has declined somewhere along the lines of 25% since then.
Ha! I saw this article about a 4,800 calorie burger and had to post these pictures of my brother at King Kong.
What’s King Kong, a burger joint? Are there four patties? The dog is either thinking “You’re crazy to think you can wrap your mouth around the burger” or “I bet you’ll drop some on the floor.” Craziness!
I remember that!!! I about puke just thinking about it! You should have seen his face towards the end…but he never puked!
Its a Nebraska based gyro/burger place. Yes, there are four patties. I don’t remember the size. Fortunately, he couldn’t get through the whole thing.
I love King Kong!!!!!!
That looks like a tasty burger. I think I’ll hit King Kong for lunch today!
The burgers were good, if you get the normal size hamburger!
Reminds me of that scene in the Great Outdoors with John Canady, when he takes that bet to eat that huge steak or something..How many ounces was that thing??
It was the 96’er as I recall.
There was a place in Sioux City when I was in college called Dizzy’s Diner. It was on HWY 75 just past the stockyards exit. They had the best burgers and pancakes. We used to go there and drink coffee all night. Anyway, they had a THREE POUND burger. The patty was almost as big as a plate (about 1.5 inch thick) and they had these special hamburger buns that were large enough to hold it. It was called “The Dizzy Challenge” and if you ate the whole thing in 30 minutes it was free. Otherwise it was 15.99. Never saw anyone pull it off and there were some HUGE football players at Morningside who tried. They came in walking tall and left with their tales between their legs. It was great, the place had a bulletin board full of polaroids. When you ordered the challenge they’d take your picture with the plate when you couldn’t take anymore. The bulletin board was overloaded with photos of failure. Tons of big guys sitting in front of a half empty plate. Most looked like they were going to pass out.
The bulletin board had 2 words on top. “Tried and Died”. On the bottom it said “Tried and Lived” but there were no photos down there.
I would pay $100 to eat there one more time. Best BBQ bacon burger I’ve ever had.
I ate at a place in college in Martinsburg, local dive bar, but best, cheap food ever. An order of fried or onion rings cam on a full size plate piled high. I think its still there.
I didn’t know Dizzy diner existed..wish I did…I love local food places-ususally where you get the best food!
I think you’re referring to Bob’s Bar. Great burgers in Martinsburg, well worth the drive. As far as I know it’s still there.
Hey Niki,
Do these ring a bell?
http://www.roadfood.com/photos/10472.jpg
http://www.roadfood.com/photos/10474.jpg
Makes me hungry !!!!! Looks so good.
Brian- We should head up to bob’s on Good Friday at midnight..only 30 minutes from home. They have great cheese balls. I called they server food until 1am when they close!!! Forgot Lotties grave!
Heck, I would go up there just for the O-Rings and cheeseballs.
You guys are funny. I have eaten at that King Kong place in Omaha a couple of times – it is really good and makes you feel very full and miserable the rest of the day. They used to sell King Kong t-shirts as well which I gave in a bought one time.
I will preface my post by saying that I have been a vegetarian for over 30 years, and currently a vegan. I have discussed and argued with the staunchest of carnivores, some of whom are doctors, and there are several conclusions that are solid and unavoidable, but harder than brocolli for meat eaters to chew on and swallow.
Number one, we are rapidly destroying the planet by our addiction and appetite for flesh foods. A recent UN report concluded that the meat industry (a catchall phrase for everything to do with animal exploitation, i.e., cattle, fowl, fish, fur, dairy,leather, etc.) is the largest source of pollution and ecological destruction in the world, worse than the chemical and oil industry. I have mentioned this appalling fact to a number of meat addicts and they don’t seem to care because “they gotta have their meat”. It’s an addiction! Smokers gotta have their smokes (even though it is killing their lungs and making them social outcasts). Meat eaters gotta have their burgers, steaks and mercury laden fish, even though their cholesterol levels are off the charts, they suffer from obesity, and their unnecessary, unhealthy habit is destroying the planet and their children’s future. If you are offended and don’t agree, you quite simply have not studied the facts. Or you choose to be in denial.
Number two, humans are not natural meat eaters. Our anatomy is antithetical to those of carnivores. We are the only meat-eating species on the planet that must use weapons or traps to kill their prey, implements to prepare their prey, and fire to render their prey edible. We have masticating jaws and teeth for chewing, rather than canine ‘ripping’ teeth. And we have an omnivorous digestive system, very unlike any natural carnivore’s. If you consider our species long evolution it is incontrovertible that our ancestors were omnivores who ate mostly a plant based diet. We were the hunted, not the hunters, or at least until our brains evolved (I use the word loosely) allowing us to use weapons to bring down prey. From most estimates this only happened within the last hundred thousand years. So, for eons upon eons prior to that, our species, like most primates, was omnivorous, and mostly vegetarian.
Number three, over 10 billion land animals are killed for human consumption in the US alone, millions more are brutalized and killed in laboratories in the name of science and industry. This unconscionalbe slaughter of our fellow creatures is immoral, barbaric and certainly not contributing to our spiritual enlightenment which is sorely lacking at this crucial time in our history. It is also a vast waste of our natural resources when you consider the amount of land cultivated solely for animal food stocks which could be better used for crops intended for direct human consumption. And we mustn’t forget the immense tracts of virgin rain forests that are decimated to provide grazing land for cattle which are destined for Big Mac’s and Quarter Pounders.
Finally, there is solid evidence that human consumption of animal products is very unhealthy and responsible for a litany of diseases, from cancer to diabetes to Alzheimer’s. Read the CHINA STUDY or listen to HEALING CANCER FROM THE INSIDE OUT, http://www.ravediet.com/ .
I am 57 years old, 5’9″, 157 lbs. I take no medication and rarely need to see an MD, except for crisis medicine, like a hand I nearly whacked off last year. I don’t even have medical insurance. I eat mostly raw foods and fresh juices. I don’t smoke or drink, but, I still manage to have lots of fun.
Consumption of, acquisition of, and desire for meat is the very reason man evolved from Apes to begin with. Once we decided we wanted meat, we had to learn to make weapons. Following and hunting that meat is how we learned to work in groups and encouraged us to migrate and expand accross the globe. Without meat we’d all still be in trees. I certainly think we can be more responsible about our consumption of meat, but eliminating it altogether certainly isn’t the answer. Most of the “facts” and studies mentioned above are pseudoscience at best and complete nonsense at worst.
I eat meat all the time. I’m 6’4″ and weigh 200 lbs. I ran a marathon and Mt. Bike regularly. My cholesterol is perfect. Not a sign of high blood pressure. Meat consumption isn’t the problem. Sedentary lifestyle and overindulgence is. We’ve been eating meat for centuries. We have K-9 teeth and are descended from omnivores who ate meat when it was available and anything else when it wasn’t. A healthy diet will have a combination of meats, fish, fruits and vegetables, and as Brian has mentioned, the closer you are to nature, the better. Unprocessed foods are best. Exercise is key.