What the Heck is Going on in Iran?

June 16th, 2009 by Brian Karpuk ·

The government in Iran has basically shut down all outside access so its very difficult to figure out what exactly is going on. Everything you read should be taken with a grain of highly skeptical salt. That said, I found this Fark comment which appears to be one guy’s attempt to synthesize the information which is still able to flow. I highly suggest that you read the whole thing.

The fourth wave of violence has started, and was expected to flare up very soon. It surprisingly was quite mild. Pro-Moussavi supporters said that there were even more people today protesting against the regime, though raw numbers are hard to get. If this is true, it means there are more than 2M protesters in the street right now. They are dressed in black and protesting silently and without violence so far. Other reports that only 250,000 were in the street, possibly scared by the Basij and propaganda.

- The Basij, surprisingly, did not attacking the march itself but rather assaulted dorms again. It looks like they are using the march as a diversion. In Tehran proper, 2000 Basij are waiting to storm the male dorm, and they are backed by IRG helicopters, which seems to send the message that the IRG has broken from their undeclared neutrality toward tacitely supporting the Regime.

- The crackdown on telecommunications is starting to suffocate all of Iran. As of now:

* Gmail and GTalk are shut down
* Yahoo is shut down
* AIM is most likely shut down
* Phone lines are down
* HTTPS and other such protocols are down
* Iranian ISPs have been shut down
* They are trying very hard to close down the Iranian connexion to twitter and giving proxies they control in order to track down people
* Cellphones and SMS are shut down

People are also receiving phone calls from the government saying “We know you were in the protests”.

Night has fallen on Iran, and the Basij are roaming, attacking passerbys at random. They have also surrounded dorms and waiting to storm them once again.

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  • Jun 17, 2009

    Mike Beacom

    I dont get the idea the guy who wrote that has much verifiable information. Sounds awefully sensationalized and he seems to know too much about the inner workings of the iranian versions of the gestapo.

    That being said, it is a screwed up mess over there right now for sure. Ive been reading news articles trying to read between the lines but havent been able to get a sense of it yet.

    It seems like the government is doing all sorts of crazy stuff like locking down the web, texting ect, yet they don’t seem to be getting as physical as I might have expected, or maybe they’re controlling the information more effectively than it seems.


  • Jun 17, 2009

    Brian Karpuk

    A few thoughts:

    • I have a creeping feeling about the futility of it all.
    • There are really two things going on, the popular protests and the rumored public emergence of long existing chasms within the clerical establishment.
    • The three seemingly most important “opposition” figures— Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Montazeri — aren’t really “opposition.” They were a part of Khomeini’s inner circle in 1979 and, between them, are very senior Ayatohlahs with more respected religious credentials than Khamenei, rich (and corrupt), a former President and Prime Minister, a former heir-apparent to the Khomenei, and each have their own powerful support within the government.

      They are, in fact, the establishment.

    • Mousavi and the opposition in general has acted extremely shrewdly throughout the entire situation. These are peaceful protests, which when coupled with the fact that senior opposition leaders within the government have endorsed them, give Khamenei very little ability to label them as trouble makers.
    • Mousavi was Prime Minister when Iran’s nuclear program was instituted.

    Finally, I think its very, very, very plausible to say that none of this would be happening if (a) Al Gore had been elected President in 2000 and (b) Seven-of-Nine had stayed out of the sex-clubs.

    Whaaaaat?

    The demonstrations in Iran required three things:

    • Popular dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad’s social and economic programs and the regime in general;
    • Democracy in Iraq;
    • Obama in office;

    None of these three things would have occurred if George Bush had not won the election in 2000.

    • Gore wouldn’t have ventured into Iraq;
    • Without such a hardline American administration during the first eight years of this decade, the Iranian regime has reason to play it cooler than they have. The “reform” faction of the regime would have no opening.
    • Obama doesn’t get elected if American’s hadn’t had 8 years of Bush;

    Anyone know where Seven-of-Nine fits in to all this?

    And I’m being very serious…


  • Jun 17, 2009

    Mike Beacom

    I quit watching Voyager after season 3 so I can’t help out there. 7 of 9 was just getting started as I recall, assuming you’re being literal. :)

    But I’m dying to know.

    Hmm, now that I think about it, I do recall seeing King Abdullah of Jordan as an extra crew member in an episode of Star Trek Voyager. My jaw dropped as I recognized him. Looking it up to see if I was right, it turns out he’s a huge fan of the franchise. I wonder if that’s somehow related. Stranger things have happened.


  • Jun 18, 2009

    Brian Karpuk

    Like I said, I’m being serious.

    Jeri Ryan, aka 7 of 9, is the ex-wife of Jack Ryan. Jack Ryan graduated (summa cum laude) from Dartmouth, got his JD/MBA from Harvard, became a partner at Goldman Sachs and then in 2000 became a teacher at an inner-city Chicago Catholic school.

    On March 16, 2004, he won the Republican primary for the Illinois Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Peter Fitzgerald.

    In June 2004, Jack and Jeri Ryan’s divorce and custody pleadings were unsealed, revealing allegations by Jeri that Jack would take her to sex clubs.

    As a result of the release of this information, Jack Ryan withdrew from the Senate race and later that year Barack Obama would trounce Ryan’s replacement Alan Keyes, winning the Senate seat and vaulting him onto the national stage.

    And that my friends is the story of how the sex life of a cast member of Star Trek Voyager came to be responsible for the overthrow of the Iranian government.


  • Jun 18, 2009

    Mike Beacom

    That broke my brain.


  • Jun 19, 2009

    Eric

    sounds like the kevin bacon/degrees of separation issue.

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