The National Balance Sheet of the United States
Is the United States Broke? Not Even Close.
With all the hand wringing going on over the housing and financial crisis I decided to see if I could put some of the massive numbers being thrown about in a little bit of perspective.
| Asset or Liability | Timeframe | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Household Assets | 2008 | $49 trillion |
| Household Liabilities | 2008 | $14 trillion |
| GDP | NPV 75 Years | $797 trillion |
| Federal Revenue | NPV 75 Years | $175 Trillion |
| U.S. Public Debt | 2011 | $9.1 trillion |
| Unfunded Social Security | NPV 75 Years | $7.7 trillion |
| Unfunded Medicare | NPV 75 Years | $53 trillion |
The math is below. As you’ll see, the above numbers take into account the fall of housing prices, the stock market decline and the $4 trillion in debt that the U.S. government will take on over the first three years of the Obama Administration. I’ll try to form some conclusions in a future post, but clearly, the United States isn’t broke.
So, go ahead. Buy yourself another Cafe Latte….
Household Assets
Household wealth is derived from two basic sources, real estate and financial assets.
U.S. Total Household Assets
| Year | Total Assets | Real Estate | Financial | Net Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $24.0 trillion | $7.4 trillion | $14.6 trillion | $20.3 trillion |
| 2000 | $49.6 trillion | $13.1 trillion | $33.3 trillion | $42.2 trillion |
| 2007 | $76.5 trillion | $22.8 trillion | $49.4 trillion | $62.1 trillion |
U.S. Financial Assets
| Year | Total | Deposits | Credit Instr. | Equities | Mutual Funds | Pensions | Non-corp. Businesses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $14.6 trillion | $3.3 | $1.8 | $2.0 | $0.5 | $3.3 | $3.0 |
| 2000 | $33.2 trillion | $4.4 | $2.6 | $8.2 | $2.7 | $9.2 | $4.7 |
| 2007 | $45.3 trillion | $7.4 | $4.0 | $5.4 | $5.1 | $12.8 | $7.9 |
Both types of assets have fallen in value over the last year plus. But how far and to what level? BEA statistics won’t be available for 2008 until later in 2009 but let’s see if we can calculate some rough numbers for 2008.
- The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices fell 18.5 percent from December 2007 to December 2008. By another measure, the value of residential properties fell 16.3% to $19.1 trillion, as of December 2008. That’s a paper wealth loss of $3.7 trillion.
- The financial crisis has also done tremendous damage to the stock market. The DJ Wilshire 5000 has fallen 53% in the last 52 weeks and about 56% since its highs of late 2007. The NASDAQ has fallen about 55% and the S&P 500 has fallen by about 56%. Losses have reached $11 trillion.
- The International Monetary Fund has estimated that more than $1.4 trillion of losses will have to be absorbed by the financial sector.
Being arbitrary, I’m going to leave the value of Deposits and Credit Intstruments alone, cut non-corporate business values to 2000 levels and the remaining mostly market based assets in half. We arrive at:
2008 Estimated Financial Assets
| Year | Total | Deposits | Credit Instr. | Equities | Mutual Funds | Pensions | Non-corp. Businesses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | $45.3 trillion | $7.4 | $4.0 | $5.4 | $5.1 | $12.8 | $7.9 |
| 2008 | $30.4 trillion | $7.4 | $4.0 | $2.7 | $2.5 | $6.4 | $4.7 |
So, roughly, financial assets have fallen by a third and real estate has fallen by over 16 percent to $19 trillion.
Conclusion: Approximately $49 trillion in household assets as of the end of 2008.
More or less the same place we were in 2000.
Federal Government Assets
The federal government is going to take some portion of the future earnings of citizens of the United States. Federal government spending as a percentage of GDP over the intermediate past and short term future:
| Time Frame | Percent of GDP |
|---|---|
| Past Fifty years | 20.2 percent |
| Pre-crisis 2007 | 20.0 percent |
| Post-crisis 2009 | 27.2 percent |
| Obama budget 2010-19 | 22.6 percent |
| Obama budget 2019 | 22.6 percent |
According to the 2008 Medicare Trustee Report:
- The estimated present value of U.S. GDP is $797.1 trillion through the next 75 years and $1,325.3 trillion through the infinite horizon.
- The estimated present value of Medicare taxable payrool is $360.5 trillion through the next 75 years and $565.4 trillion through the infinite horizon.
Using 22% of future GDP as an approximation of future government spending, then the present value of the United States federal government’s future “earnings” are approximately $175 trillion over the next 75 years and $292 trillion through the infinite horizon.
Conclusion: $175 trillion in future government revenue.
But See: The 2008 Medicare Trustee Report projects Medicare expenditures to increase from 3.2 percent of GDP in 2007 to 10.8 percent by 2082. That would put federal spending at about 30% of GDP.
Household Liabilities
| Year | Total liabilities | Credit market instruments |
Home mortgages | Consumer credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $3.7 trillion | $3.6 | $2.5 | $0.8 |
| 2000 | $7.4 trillion | $7.0 | $4.8 | $1.7 |
| 2007 | $14.4 trillion | $13.8 | $10.5 | $2.6 |
(Source)
Household liabilities are going to be roughly the same or a little higher at the end of 2008 as they were at the end of 2007, so we’ll just use the 2007 numbers. Remember, we don’t need to be perfectly accurate. We’re just amateurs.
Conclusion: $14 trillion in household liabilities.
Government Liabilities
The liabilities that has everyone freaked out about the future: the national debt, Social Security and Medicare.
United States National Debt
| Year | GDP | Total Debt | Agencies | The Fed | Private |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | $13.2 trillion | $8.5 | $3.7 | $0.8 | $4.1 |
| 2007 | $13.8 trillion | $9.2 | $4.1 | $0.8 | $4.4 |
| 2008 | $14.3 trillion | $10.7 | $4.3 | $0.5 | $5.8 |
The Obama Administration’s proposed budget projects a federal deficit of approximately $1.8 trillion for 2009 and approximately $1 trillion in 2010 and 2011.
Let’s rerun the debt numbers with those estimates but excluding debt held by government agencies since that really belongs in the Social Security section below. We’ll also add in interest payments on the public debt. At current long term interest rates for the United States government, servicing the interest on that debt amounts to about $40 billion a year per trillion of debt.
United States National Debt
| Year | GDP | Fed. Debt in Private Hands | Interest on Public Debt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | $13.2 trillion | $4.1 trillion | $214 billion |
| 2007 | $13.8 trillion | $4.3 trillion | $227 billion |
| 2008 | $14.3 trillion | $5.3 trillion | $238 billion |
| 2009 | $14.0 trillion | $7.1 trillion | $284 billion |
| 2010 | $14.3 trillion | $8.1 trillion | $324 billion |
| 2011 | $14.7 trillion | $9.1 trillion | $364 billion |
(Source)
By the end of 2011, the United States’ federal public debt will be approximately $9.1 trillion and the ratio of federal debt held by the public to nominal GDP is likely to exceed 60 percent.
Interest on the public debt is likely to amount to about 2.5% of GDP.
Social Security
As of 2008, the Social Security Trust Fund held approximately $4 trillion of United States Treasuries. Benefits are expected to exceed revenue starting in 2018 and the social security “trust fund” is expected to by exhausted by 2042.
The estimated present value of unfunded Social Security obligations is $3.7 trillion through the next 75 years and $10.4 trillion trillion through the infinite horizon.
Medicare
According to the 2008 Medicare Trustee Report:
- The estimated present value of unfunded HI obligations is $22.0 trillion through the next 75 years and $34.4 trillion through the infinite horizon.
- The estimated present value of Part B expenditures is $21.2 trillion through the next 75 years and $45.9 trillion through the infinite horizon.
- The estimated present value of Part D expenditures is $10.0 trillion through the next 75 years and $21.8 trillion through the infinite horizon.
That’s $53 trillion in unfunded Medicare liabilities. I don’t believe it (why, later…) but those are the official numbers so we’ll use them.
| Timeframe | Social Security | Medicare | Medicare Part B | Medicare Part D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008- 2083 | $7.7 trillion | $22 trillion | $21 trillion | $10 trillion |
| After 2083 | $2.7 trillion | $12 trillion | $46 trillion | $12 trillion |
I’ll try and get to some related thoughts on what all of this means soon. In the meantime, here are some related articles regarding taxes and the Federal Debt.
Related Reading: |
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Obviously, my previous response should have provided you with the gist of why I have concerns about your data. Is your data inaccurate? Mostly no. Is your data skewed to fit your viewpoint? Yes.
Business Sector Debt
Let’s start with my previous MSFT example. MSFT had $31.3 billion in total liabilities as of December 2008. I suspect that MSFT’s debt is included in your line item: “Business Sector debt – record high.”
Presenting that data as you do provides no information that MSFT’s balance sheet lists MSFT’s assets at $65.8 billion. It makes no mention of the $17.6 billion in free cash flow that MSFT had in FY 2008.
I’m not characterizing your Business Sector Debt line item as inaccurate. I wouldn’t even call it misleading. It does however disregard generally accepted accounting rules. It disregards the positive book value of those businesses which you list as having $11.1 trillion in debt.
When you first commented here, or shortly thereafter, I took a few moments to re-think why I didn’t and whether I should include Business sector debt in my calculations. At first, I thought that I had forgotten an entire category of debt. Upon further review, I concluded that leaving that debt out was the more accurate picture. The net value of businesses in the United States should be included in my calculation of 2008 Household Financial Assets.
Ultimately, it is households which own the businesses in this country [insert lame joke about the government now owning them here]. They own those businesses mostly through the stock market. If the stock market has a positive value of some $10 trillion, then that should mean that U.S. businesses have more in assets than they do in liabilities.
There’s no doubt that the U.S. has assets.
The wealthiest 1% owns 40% of all wealth.
80% of Americans own only 17% of all wealth.
That gap has never been larger since the Great Depression.
MSFT is cash rich, unlike most corporations.
The nation’s net assets (well over one hundred(s) of trillion dollars) are significantly larger than the nation’s total nation-wide debt of about $70 Trillion (which includes $12.8 Trillion borrowed and spent from Social Security).
Again, there’s no doubt about assets existing too.
I was only trying to look at current debt only (and not future debt and liabilities either). That is, the future debt and liabilities of Social Security and Medicare could be $60+ Trillion for the next several decades, but that’s future debt.
Anyway, what I’m trying to establish is whether the total current debt is accurate ($57 Trillion excluding the $12.8 Trillion borrowed from Social Security/Medicare surpluses, leaving them pay-as-you-go, with a 78 Million baby boomer bubble approaching; $70 Trillion including that $12.8 Trillion borrowed from Social Security/Medicare).
I choose to ignore that so-called $7.5 Social Security/Medicare surpluses, since those are only non-negotiable/non-marketable I.O.U.s. (but fortunately, no interest due either on that $12.8 Trillion debt).
But, while we’re talking about net worth, what is the nation’s net worth (federal and non-federal)? I’ve seen estimates well over $100 Trillion, and that sounds low to me, since it seems to me that all land, buildings, corporations (and via stocks) mines, natural resources, real estate, etc., would total more than $100 Trillion (about $323K per-capita; but 40% of that wealth belonging to the wealthiest 1%).
Thanks for the info on the smokers/non-smokers medical costs.
I think Medicare costs may have been less for smokers at one time due to earlier death.
But I doubt it now, since medical costs are now much higer, longevity for both smokers and non-smokers has increased, smokers only live 1.9-to-3.9 years less (on average), the eligibility age is still 65, males live to an average age of 75, women live to an average age of 80, and Medicare coverage and benefits have increased to include medications and prescriptions too.
At any rate, the voters have the government that the voters elect (and re-elect, and re-elect, and re-elect , . . . , at least until that finally becomes too painful).
Dan, a couple of times you have referred to “$12.8 Trillion borrowed and spent from Social Security.” I meant to ask you about it before but forgot. Where does this number come from? What is it?
The $12.8 Trillion figure comes from the CATO Institute.
source: http://www.socialsecurity.org/reformandyou/faqs.html#2
Some people speak of trust funds consisting of treasury bonds, but those non-negotiable/non-marketable I.O.U.s (of about $7.58 Trillion).
source: http://zfacts.com/p/461.html
Therefore, the real total federal debt consists of $11.1 Trillion National Debt, and the $12.8 Trillion borrowed and spent from Social Security (totalling $23.8 Trillion of total federal debt).
Still, excluding the $12.8 Trillion borrowed from Social Security, the current $11.1 Trillion National Debt is 65% higher per-capita ($35,807) than the previous record high National Debt per-capita ($21,719 in 2008 dollars) in year 1945 after World War II, and 664% higher than the National Debt per-capita ($5,396 in 2008 dollars) in year 1941 (near the end of the Great Depression).
If the $12.8 Trillion borrowed from Social Security is included, the debt per-capita and as a percentage of GDP is even more dismal today.
The point is, this nation has a very serious debt problem.
Not merely a credit problem.
And that debt is growing fast.
If the debt is untenable, how will growing it larger help?
http://One-Simple-Idea.com/DebtUntenable1.htm
Dan, I believe that you are misreading this data. I’ve put my best attempt at an explanation here. I think that the CATO Institute site is the source of the problem. There are not $12.8 billion in borrowings from Social Security. Its only about $2.4 billion and those borrowings are included in the $11 trillion national debt.
I’m going to close this thread and clean it up. Its gotten too long. Please feel free to continue the conversation on the other post.