Expectations

Two items ran across my desk yesterday that I’m finally getting to. The first is from Michael Yon on Afghanistan:

We must alter our expectations for Afghanistan. There are bigger problems afoot. The ice is melting, banks are melting, and the prestige of great nations that do great things is melting, because they thought they could transform a thorny bush into a tree.

The second is just from some guy, but its thought-provoking to say the least.

It’s Not Just Generals Who Fight the Last War.

Most of the countries with whom the United States enjoys extremely tense relations have a view of the world that is considerably more akin to Vatican foreign policy than American: Ordinarily, they think in terms of decades and centuries, where we think in terms of Presidential terms. China, Iran, and Russia, while sharing virtually no other foreign policy views or assumptions, all believe that they have been here before the rise of the West, they will be here after, and their first goal is to identify Western (especially American) weakness and exploit it. Worse for us, each of those countries is facing both an economic collapse — where material well-being was one of the only reasons not to overthrow the regime — and a demographic collapse, both of which leave them keen to find advantage and use it.

Read the second article in its entirety.

Its not that I necessarily think that these opinions are correct. But with Iraq becoming more stable by the day we’ve been preconditioned to accept increased focus on “winning” Afghanistan.

Maybe expectations need to change.

1 Comment

Brian Karpuk on February 10, 2009 at 6:41 pm

Retired General Barry McCaffrey, now Professor of International Affairs at the United States Military Academy, seems to be popping up everywhere these days providing insight into the international and national security situation. Here is his 2009 Update on National Security.

The War on Terror

The proliferation of WMD nation states and technology remains the principal threat to the American people and our allies.
Protecting America’s critical infrastructure and key assets is a formidable challenge. Our open and technologically complex society presents a huge array of targets. The macro numbers are enormous: 87,000 communities; 1,800 federal reservoirs; 2,800 power plants and 104 commercial nuclear power plants; 5,000 airports; 120,000 miles of railroads; 590,000 bridges; 2 million miles of pipeline; 80,000 dams.
International Law Enforcement Cooperation is a major success. (FBI and DEA)
Covert Action and Collection has improved enormously with new resources and courageous dedication by the US intelligence community. (CIA, NSA, and DIA)

European Conundrum

Relations with Europe will dramatically improve with the President Obama Administration.

and yet,

The war in Afghanistan is badly supported by our NATO Allies and threatened by an ineffective Afghan government and instability in Pakistan.

Good News From Asia

Political and economic relations with China will continue to remain strong even as the PRC emerges as a major Pacific naval and air force military power.
Political and economic relations with India are now immeasurably better than pre-9/11.
US–Japanese economic, military, and political cooperation will grow even more intense.
Saudi Arabia will continue to modernize, maintain stability, and greatly improve the capabilities of their Armed Forces and internal security.

Big Wars

The next five years in Afghanistan will be complex. The political and economic situation may improve with massive new US resources. ($184 billion expended). Our Allies will not step up to the military challenge. The country is in misery.
The crisis in Iraq will stabilize and US forces will largely withdraw in the coming 36 months. (35,000 US killed and wounded –$687 billion total).

Little Conflicts

US-Russia relations will grow more hostile –Prime Minister Putin has re-established authoritarian control of the state and its mechanisms.
North Korea will come apart. We must facilitate a soft landing for this dangerous regional nuclear power.
The death of Castro–meltdown of repression –250,000 refugees within 36 months.
The situation in Pakistan is unstable. Our position in Afghanistan would be untenable without Pakistani support. Democracy is at peril.
Iran (Persian/Shia) will go nuclear and create instability in the Persian Gulf. The Sunni Arabs will create a nuclear-military coalition.

Closer to Home

Mexico in desperate need of serious US political and economic support to confront violent criminal drug cartels. US must act in deference to Mexican sovereignty.
We have no US Latin-America regional strategy.
Terrorists will strike at America during the next Administration’s first term.

Brian Karpuk on February 10, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Retired General Barry McCaffrey, now Professor of International Affairs at the United States Military Academy, seems to be popping up everywhere these days providing insight into the international and national security situation. Here is his 2009 Update on National Security.

The War on Terror
- The proliferation of WMD nation states and technology remains the principal threat to the American people and our allies.
- Protecting America’s critical infrastructure and key assets is a formidable challenge. Our open and technologically complex society presents a huge array of targets. The macro numbers are enormous: 87,000 communities; 1,800 federal reservoirs; 2,800 power plants and 104 commercial nuclear power plants; 5,000 airports; 120,000 miles of railroads; 590,000 bridges; 2 million miles of pipeline; 80,000 dams.
- International Law Enforcement Cooperation is a major success. (FBI and DEA)
- Covert Action and Collection has improved enormously with new resources and courageous dedication by the US intelligence community. (CIA, NSA, and DIA)
European Conundrum
- Relations with Europe will dramatically improve with the President Obama Administration.
- The war in Afghanistan is badly supported by our NATO Allies and threatened by an ineffective Afghan government and instability in Pakistan.
Good News From Asia
- Political and economic relations with China will continue to remain strong even as the PRC emerges as a major Pacific naval and air force military power.
- Political and economic relations with India are now immeasurably better than pre-9/11.
- US–Japanese economic, military, and political cooperation will grow even more intense.
- Saudi Arabia will continue to modernize, maintain stability, and greatly improve the capabilities of their Armed Forces and internal security.
Big Wars
- The next five years in Afghanistan will be complex. The political and economic situation may improve with massive new US resources. ($184 billion expended). Our Allies will not step up to the military challenge. The country is in misery.
- The crisis in Iraq will stabilize and US forces will largely withdraw in the coming 36 months. (35,000 US killed and wounded –$687 billion total).
Little Conflicts
- US-Russia relations will grow more hostile –Prime Minister Putin has re-established authoritarian control of the state and its mechanisms.
- North Korea will come apart. We must facilitate a soft landing for this dangerous regional nuclear power.
- The death of Castro–meltdown of repression –250,000 refugees within 36 months.
- The situation in Pakistan is unstable. Our position in Afghanistan would be untenable without Pakistani support. Democracy is at peril.
- Iran (Persian/Shia) will go nuclear and create instability in the Persian Gulf. The Sunni Arabs will create a nuclear-military coalition.
Closer to Home
- Mexico in desperate need of serious US political and economic support to confront violent criminal drug cartels. US must act in deference to Mexican sovereignty.
- We have no US Latin-America regional strategy.
- Terrorists will strike at America during the next Administration’s first term.